,QꢀWKLVꢀPRGHꢀWKHꢀGHYLꢅHꢀWUDQVPLWVꢀGDWDꢀꢅRQWLQXRXVO\ꢆꢀ7KHꢀGDWDꢀLWHP 9HUERVHꢀPRGHꢀEHJLQVꢀLPPHGLDWHO\ꢀXSRQꢀSRZHUꢀXSꢀLIꢀVHWXSꢀ>*@ꢀLVꢀVHW
WRꢀ>*ꢆꢐ@ꢀRUꢀKLJKHUꢆ
VHQWꢀIURPꢀWKHꢀ8$57ꢀLVꢀVHOHꢅWHGꢀE\ꢀ6HWXSꢀ>+@ꢎꢀ9HUERVHꢀ'DWDꢆꢀ
1DWLYHꢀ9HUERVHꢀPRGHꢀLVꢀXVHIXOꢀWRꢀVHQGꢀWRꢀWKHꢀKRVWꢀDꢀꢅRQWLQXRXVꢀGDWD
VWUHDPꢀ RIꢀ RQHꢀ LWHPꢎꢀ ZLWKRXWꢀ WKHꢀ ꢅRPSOH[LW\ꢀ RIꢀ Dꢀ ELGLUHꢅWLRQDOꢀ OLQNꢆ
:LWKꢀ WKLVꢀ PRGHꢀ WKHꢀ VHOHꢅWHGꢀ GDWDꢀ LVꢀ WUDQVPLWWHGꢀ RQꢀ Dꢀ ꢅRQWLQXRXV
EDVLVꢀIURPꢀWKHꢀPRPHQWꢀWKHꢀXQLWꢀSRZHUVꢀXSꢆꢀ
ꢆꢁꢅꢂ8$57ꢂ'$7$ꢂ,1ꢂ9(5%26(ꢂ02'(
,Qꢀ9HUERVHꢀPRGHꢀꢋHLWKHUꢀꢓ1DWLYHꢀ9HUERVHꢓꢀPRGHꢎꢀVHWꢀE\ꢀ>*ꢆꢐ@ꢀDQGꢀXS-
RUꢀꢓ(QKDQꢅHGꢀ9HUERVHꢓꢀPRGHꢀꢋSROOHGꢀPRGHꢀLQꢀZKLꢅKꢀWKHꢀOHWWHUꢀꢓYꢓꢀKDV
EHHQꢀVHQWꢀWRꢀWKHꢀꢂꢃꢇꢁ%ꢉ-ꢀWKHꢀGHYLꢅHꢀZLOOꢀWUDQVPLWꢀEDꢅNꢀDꢀꢅRQWLQXRXV
VWUHDPꢀ RIꢀ GDWDꢆꢀ ,Qꢀ 1DWLYHꢀ 9HUERVHꢀ PRGHꢀ WKHꢀ GDWDꢀ VHQWꢀ LVꢀ WKDW
VSHꢅLILHGꢀ E\ꢀ >+@ꢆꢀ 7KHVHꢀ GDWDꢀ W\SHVꢀ UHIOHꢅWꢀ WKDWꢀ IRXQGꢀ LQꢀ WKHꢀ (ꢉ65
ERDUGꢎꢀ WKXVꢀ PDLQWDLQLQJꢀ ꢅRPSDWLELOLW\ꢎꢀ DQGꢀ ꢅDQꢀ EHꢀ VXPPDUL]HGꢀ DV
IROORZVꢀꢋVHHꢀDOVRꢀVXPPDU\ꢀ7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢉ-ꢒ
9HUERVHꢀGDWDꢀLVꢀLQꢀWKHꢀIRUPꢀRIꢀUDZꢀKH[ꢀꢅRGHꢆꢀ7KHUHꢀDUHꢀQRꢀKHDGHUV
RUꢀGDWDꢀEORꢅNVꢌꢀGDWDꢀLVꢀPHUHO\ꢀDꢀꢅRQWLQXRXVꢀVWUHDPꢀRIꢀꢔꢄELWꢀKH[ꢀꢅRGH
RIꢀ WKHꢀ LQWHUQDOꢀ 43UR[ꢀ GDWDꢆꢀ +RVWꢀ UHꢅHLYHꢀ SURWRꢅROꢀ QHHGꢀ QRWꢀ LQꢅOXGH
DQ\WKLQJꢀIRUꢀGDWDꢀV\QꢅKURQL]DWLRQꢌꢀHYHU\ꢀꢅKDUDꢅWHUꢀUHꢅHLYHGꢀZLOOꢀEHꢀD
VHOIꢄꢅRQWDLQHGꢀ GDWDꢀ SRLQWꢆꢀ 1Rꢀ &5ꢀ RUꢀ /)ꢀ ꢅRGHVꢀ DUHꢀ VHQWꢆꢀ 1DWLYH
ꢉꢈꢀ6\QWKꢀRXWSXWVꢀILOWHUHGꢀꢋV\QWKHWLꢅ-ꢀGDWDꢎꢀDWꢀWKHꢀHQGꢀRIꢀDOO
HQDEOHGꢀILOWHUꢀVWDJHVꢆꢀ,WꢀLVꢀDQꢀXQVLJQHGꢀꢔꢄELWꢀVLJQDOꢀYDOXHꢆ
7$%/(ꢂꢆꢄꢃꢂꢄꢂ(92.(ꢂ&2'(ꢂ5(63216(6
ꢁꢈꢀ6\QWKꢀꢊꢀ5HIꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀGLIIHUHQꢅHꢀEHWZHHQꢀWKHꢀILOWHUHGꢀVLJQDO
DQGꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀUHIHUHQꢅHꢆꢀ7KHꢀGDWDꢀLVꢀꢉꢓVꢀꢅRPSOHPHQW
ELQDU\ꢒꢀ,IꢀWKHꢀVLJQDOꢀGLSVꢀEHORZꢀWKHꢀUHIHUHQꢅHꢀOHYHOꢎꢀWKHꢀGDWD
EHꢅRPHVꢀQHJDWLYHꢆ
(92.( (92.(
ꢂ$6&,,ꢃ
ꢂ+(;ꢃ
ꢇ[ꢑꢇ
ꢇ[ꢑꢁ
ꢇ[ꢑꢉ
ꢇ[ꢑꢑ
ꢇ[ꢑꢍ
ꢇ[ꢑꢐ
ꢇ[ꢑꢏ
ꢇ[ꢑꢃ
ꢇ[ꢑꢔ
'$7$ꢀ75$160,77('
6LJQDOꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢉꢐꢐ-
ꢉ
ꢁ
ꢃ
ꢋ
ꢌ
ꢍ
ꢎ
ꢏ
ꢐ
ꢃꢈꢀ5HIꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀVLJQDOꢀUHIHUHQꢅHꢀOHYHOꢆ
6LJQDOꢀꢄꢀ5HIHUHQꢅHꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢉꢐꢐ-
5HIHUHQꢅHꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢉꢐꢐ-
ꢋꢈꢀ2IIVHWꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀ'$&ꢀRIIVHWꢀYDOXHꢀEHLQJꢀIHGꢀWRꢀWKH
DPSOLILHUꢀꢅKDLQꢀꢋ2XWB$ꢀRIꢀWKHꢀ$'ꢃꢑꢇꢑ-ꢆ
$PSOLILHUꢀ2IIVHWꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢉꢐꢐ-
&KDUJHꢀ&DQꢅHOODWLRQꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢍ-
'HWHꢅWꢀ,QWHJUDWRUꢀ&RXQWVꢀꢋꢇꢆꢆꢉꢇꢇ-
$Q\ꢀLWHPꢀVHOHꢅWHGꢀE\ꢀ6HWXSꢀ>8@
6WDWXVꢀELWVꢀꢄꢀVHHꢀ7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢑ
(UURUꢀ&RGHꢒꢀ6HHꢀ6HꢅWLRQꢀꢍꢆꢐ
ꢌꢈꢀ&DQꢄHOODWLRQꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀꢅKDUJHꢀꢅDQꢅHOODWLRQꢀYDOXHꢎ
IURPꢀꢇꢀWRꢀꢍꢎꢀUHSUHVHQWLQJꢀWKHꢀQXPEHUꢀRIꢀ&]ꢀꢅDSDꢅLWRUVꢀEHLQJ
XVHGꢀWRꢀSURYLGHꢀꢅKDUJHꢀꢅDQꢅHOODWLRQꢆ
ꢍꢈꢀ',ꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀYDOXHꢀRIꢀWKHꢀ'HWHꢅWꢀ,QWHJUDWRUꢀꢋVHHꢀQRWHV
UHODWHGꢀWRꢀ>%@ꢀLQꢀWKHꢀ47ꢂꢃꢇꢁ%ꢀGDWDꢀVKHHW-ꢆ
ꢎꢈꢀ)URPꢀ8ꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀYDOXHꢀVSHꢅLILHGꢀE\ꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀVHWWLQJꢀRI
6HOHꢅWꢀ>8@ꢆ
ꢏꢈꢀ6WDWXVꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀ6WDWXVꢀ%\WHꢀDꢅꢅRUGLQJꢀWRꢀ7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢑꢆ
1RWHꢀWKDWꢀWKHꢀ6WDWXVꢀ%\WHꢀRIꢀ>8ꢆꢔ@ꢀLVꢀQRWꢀWKHꢀVDPHꢆ
7$%/(ꢂꢆꢄꢅꢂꢄꢂ67$786ꢂ%<7(ꢂꢒ+ꢁꢋꢓ
6HHꢀ6HꢅWLRQꢀꢍꢆꢑ
ꢐꢈꢀ(UUꢀ&RGHꢀUHWXUQVꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀHUURUꢀꢅRGHꢀꢋVHHꢀ6HꢅWLRQꢀꢍꢆꢐ-ꢆ
%,76
0($1,1*
,Qꢀ ꢓ(QKDQꢅHGꢀ 9HUERVHꢓꢀ PRGHꢎꢀ DQ\ꢀ RIꢀ WKHꢀ DERYHꢀ LWHPVꢀ ꢅDQꢀ EH
VHOHꢅWHGꢀ ꢓRQꢀ WKHꢀ IO\ꢓꢀ E\ꢀ VHQGLQJꢀ DQ\ꢀ RQHꢀ RIꢀ $6&,,ꢀ ꢅKDUDꢅWHUVꢀ ꢓꢇꢓ
WKURXJKꢀ ꢓꢔꢓꢀ ꢅRUUHVSRQGLQJꢀ WRꢀ RQHꢀ RIꢀ WKHꢀ DERYHꢀ GDWDꢀ LWHPVꢆꢀ 7KH
UHVXOWLQJꢀꢅRQWLQXRXVꢀGDWDVWUHDPꢀZLOOꢀSHUVLVWꢀXQWLOꢀDꢀGLIIHULQJꢀꢅKDUDꢅWHU
LVꢀVHQWꢀWRꢀWKHꢀꢂꢃꢇꢁ%ꢉꢆ
ꢄꢀ ꢀQHJDWLYHꢀGHWHꢆWLRQ
ꢄꢀ ꢀSRVLWLYHꢀGHWHꢆWLRQ
ꢄꢀ ꢀXQLWꢀLVꢀEXV\ꢀ/LQꢀꢆDOLEUDWLRQꢀRUꢀVWDUWXSꢊ
ꢄꢀ ꢀDQꢀHUURUꢀKDVꢀRꢆꢆXUUHG
ꢄꢀ ꢀ%*ꢀLQSXWꢀGHWHꢆWHG
ꢄꢀ ꢀ2%-ꢀLQSXWꢀGHWHꢆWHG
XQXVHG
ꢐ
ꢃ
ꢅ
ꢇ
ꢈ
ꢆꢁꢆꢂ32//('ꢂ8$57ꢂ02'(
3ROOHGꢀ8$57ꢀPRGHꢀLVꢀVSHꢅLILHGꢀE\ꢀVHWWLQJꢀ>*@ꢀWRꢀDꢀVHWWLQJꢀEHWZHHQ
>*ꢆꢁ@ꢀWRꢀ>*ꢆꢍ@ꢆ
ꢋ
ꢎ;ꢀꢏ
,Qꢀ WKLVꢀ PRGHꢀ WKHꢀ GHYLꢅHꢀ ZDLWVꢀ IRUꢀ DQꢀ $6&,,ꢀ µ(YRNHꢀ &RGH¶ꢀ IURPꢀ WKH
KRVWꢀEHIRUHꢀVHQGLQJꢀGDWDꢀEDꢅNꢆꢀ,QꢀWKLVꢀPRGHꢀWKHꢀGHYLꢅHꢀꢅDQꢀDOVRꢀEH
SXWꢀ LQWRꢀ DQꢀ ³(QKDQꢅHGꢀ 9HUERVH¶ꢀ PRGHꢀ WHPSRUDULO\ꢆꢀ 7KHꢀ GDWD
ꢅKDUDꢅWHUꢀ VHQWꢀEDꢅNꢀ WRꢀWKHꢀ KRVWꢀLVꢀ VHQWꢀLPPHGLDWHO\ꢀ DIWHUꢀ UHꢅHLSWꢀRI
WKHꢀ(YRNHꢀ&RGHꢆꢀ,Qꢀ(QKDQꢅHGꢀ9HUERVHꢀPRGHꢎꢀWKHꢀGDWDꢀLVꢀLGHQWLꢅDOꢀWR
UHJXODUꢀ9HUERVHꢀPRGHꢎꢀKRZHYHUꢀWKHꢀGDWDꢀVWUHDPꢀꢅDQꢀEHꢀDOWHUHGꢀµRQ
WKHꢀ IO\¶ꢀ UHSHDWHGO\ꢀ WRꢀ GLIIHUHQWꢀ SDUDPHWHUVꢀ E\ꢀ VHQGLQJꢀ QHZꢀ (YRNH
&RGHVꢀLQꢀWKHꢀUDQJHꢀꢇꢆꢆꢔꢆ
7$%/(ꢂꢆꢄꢆꢂꢄꢂ67$786ꢂ%<7(ꢂꢒ8ꢁꢌꢓ
6HHꢀ6HꢅWLRQꢀꢐꢆꢉ
%,76
0($1,1*
(UURUꢀꢆRGH&ꢀYDOXHꢀUDQJHꢀꢃꢇꢇꢏꢀ/VHHꢀ7DEOHꢀꢐꢋꢉꢊ
ꢄꢀ ꢀQHJDWLYHꢀGHWHꢆWLRQ
ꢐ;ꢀꢃ
ꢅ
ꢄꢀ ꢀSRVLWLYHꢀGHWHꢆWLRQ
ꢇ
3ROOHGꢀ PRGHꢀ DOORZVꢀ 9HUERVHꢀ PRGHꢀ WRRꢎꢀ SOXVꢀ Dꢀ QXPEHUꢀ RIꢀ DGGHG
IHDWXUHVꢀ LQꢅOXGLQJꢀ UHPRWHꢀ 6HWXSVꢀ SURJUDPPLQJꢎꢀ IRUꢅHGꢀ ꢅDOLEUDWLRQ
ꢋLQꢅOXGLQJꢀ ERWKꢀ %*ꢀ DQGꢀ 2%ꢕ-ꢎꢀ DQGꢀ 47ꢀ ZLGWKꢀ ꢅKDQJLQJꢀ RQꢀ WKHꢀ IO\ꢆ
3ROOHGꢀPRGHꢀDOVRꢀOHWVꢀ\RXꢀH[DPLQHꢀWKHꢀꢅXUUHQWꢀ6HWXSVꢆ
ꢄꢀ ꢀ287ꢀSLQꢀLVꢀDꢆWLYH
ꢈ
ꢄꢀ ꢀXQLWꢀLVꢀEXV\ꢀ/LQꢀꢆDOLEUDWLRQꢀRUꢀVWDUWXSꢊ
ꢄꢀ ꢀ2%-ꢀLQSXWꢀGHWHꢆWHG
ꢋ
ꢎ
ꢄꢀ ꢀ%*ꢀLQSXWꢀGHWHꢆWHG
ꢏ
7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢁꢀVKRZVꢀWKHꢀSROOHGꢄPRGHꢀ$6&,,ꢀꢅRPPDQGꢀVHWꢆꢀ(YRNHꢀꢅRGHV
ꢇꢆꢆꢔꢀUHWXUQꢀGDWDꢀDꢅꢅRUGLQJꢀWRꢀ7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢉꢆꢀ(UURUꢀꢅRGHVꢀDUHꢀGHVꢅULEHGꢀLQ
7DEOHꢀꢍꢄꢐꢆ
7$%/(ꢂꢆꢄꢉꢂꢄꢂ(5525ꢂ&2'(ꢂꢒ+ꢁꢌꢓ
6HHꢀ6HꢅWLRQꢀꢍꢆꢐ
9$/8(
0($1,1*
1RꢀHUURU
ꢐ
ꢃ
ꢅ
ꢇ
6KRUWꢀꢆLUꢆXLWꢀVXVSHꢆWHG
([ꢆHVVꢀꢆDSDꢆLWLYHꢀORDG
8QVWDEOHꢀUHDGLQJV&ꢀꢆDQQRWꢀꢆDOLEUDWH
ꢎ