03/
33美元/ , & 7.21美元127 ( 6
3RZHU 6XSSOLHV DQG * URXQGLQJ
“ LJLWDO 2XWSXWV
5HIHU WR
) LJXUH ?
IRU GHWDLOV RQ WKH GDWD DYDLODELOLW \\ WLPLQJ ? 7KH
GLJLWDO RXWSXWV VKRXOG QRW GULYH ORQJ ZLUHV RU EXVHV ? 7KH
FDSDFLWLYH FRXSOLQJ DQG UHIOHFWLRQV ZLOO FRQWULEXWH QRLVH WR WKH
FRQYHUVLRQ ? 7KH ┮䘖HQDEOH SLQ ? 2 (
VKRXOG QRW EH OHIW
XQFRQQHFWHG ?我LW LV QRW FRQWUROOHG ê \\ DQ DFWLYH VLJQDO ? LW PXVW EH
WLHG WR JURXQG ?
$9
DQG “ 9
VKRXOG EH FRQQHFWHG WR WKH VDPSOH SRZHU
VXSSO \\ VRXUFH ?
? 7KH SRZHU VXSSO \\ ? 9美元
DQG “ 9
DQG UHIHUHQFH YROWDJH ? 9
#%
9
#
ZLWK ?
2
) DQG ?
2
) FDSDFLWRUV WR * 1 “? SODFHG DV FORVH WR WKH
FKLS DV SRVVLEOH ?
$ * 1 ' DQG “* 1” SLQV DUH FRQQHFWHG LQWHUQDOO \\ WKURXJK WKH
3 ? VXEVWUDWH ? $ * 1 ' DQG “* 1” SLQV VKRXOG EH FRQQHFWHG
WRJHWKHU DV FORVH WR WKH FKLS DV SRVVLEOH ?
9
)6
W
3:+
W
3:/
&安培; / 。
6DPSOH '1μ
1
1
3,3- ( / 1 (' ( / <美元
1
1
1
1
'$7$ 1
2
)
$9
&放大器; ORFN
P
)
'$7$
''
'9
'9
'%
'%
'%
'%
'%
'%
'%
'%
&安培; / 。
9
W
'/
) LJXUH ? “ DWD $ YDLODEOH 7LPLQJ
P
576
57
,1
5%
5%6
)
9
$ QDORJ
䕧ܹ
:
03/
9
“ LJLWDO
2XWSXWV
'\\ QDPLF崬&RQWURO
9
P
)
9
$*1'
2(
'*1'
7KH 03 ?? / ?? DOORZV IRU摹\\ QDPLFDOO \\ DGMXVWHG 9
: KHQ WKLV LV GRQH ? 9
FHUWDLQ SHULRG ?
57
DQG 9
5%
KDYH WR EH NHSW VWDWLF GXULQJ ð
57
DQG 9
5%
7KH $ ? FRQYHUVLRQ LV GRQH LQ ð WZR ? VWHS PHWKRG ? “ XULQJ WKH
ILUVW FORFN SHULRG ? WKH 06 % FRPSDUDWRU EDQN FRPSDUHV WKH 9
ZLWK WKH UHIHUHQFH YROWDJH VWULQJ LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH LQ ZKLFK
VXEUDQJH WKH H [ DFW 9
9
SHULRG ? DQ / 6 % FRPSDUDWRU EDQN FRPSDUHV ð VXEUDQJH RI WKH
GXULQJ WZR FRPSDUH ˚F \\ FOHV ? 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW ZKLOH WKH $' & LV
FORFNHG ZLWK ) 6 ? WKH FRQYHUVLRQ RQO \\ RFFXUV DW Ð UDWH RI ) 6 ???
( YHU \\ VHFRQG VDPSOH DQG UHVXOWLQJ GDWD PXVW EH GLVFDUGHG
EHFDXVH WKH UHIHUHQFH FKDQJHV GXULQJ语言世界图景FRQYHUVLRQ ?
7KH UHIHUHQFH LQSXWV 9
,1
) LJXUH ? 7 \\ SLFDO &LUFXLW &RQQHFWLRQV
,1
OLHV ? “ XULQJ WKH VXEVHTXHQW FORFN
7KH $ QDORJ䕧ܹ
: KHQ GHVLJQLQJ ZLWK WKH 03 ?? / ??? WKH IROORZLQJ SRLQWV外债配额
KHOS RSWLPL ] ħ SHUIRUPDQFH ?
“ ULYLQJ WKH DQDORJ LQSXW ï 7KH LQSXW LPSHGDQFH外债配额EH
UHSUHVHQWHG DV ð VZLWFKHG FDSDFLWRU W¯¯ \\ SH LQSXW FLUFXLW ? LH ? WKH
LQSXW LPSHGDQFH FKDQJHV ZLWK WKH SKDVH RI WKH LQSXW FORFN ?
) LJXUH ?
5()
WR WKH 9
,1
7KXV ? WKH UHIHUHQFH LQSXWV KDYH WR EH VWDEOH
? / 6 % ? DW OHDVW ? QV EHIRUH WKH ULVLQJ HGJH ZKLFK RFFXUV DIWHU
WKH VDPSOLQJ LQVWDQW ? 7KH UHIHUHQFH KDV WR EH NHSW FRQVWDQW XQWLO
W
WLPLQJ GHWDLOV ? 7KH GLJLWDO GDWD RI WKH 1 ? ?? 1 ? 1 ? ? HWF ?
VDPSOHV DUH LQYDOLG李WKH UHIHUHQFH LV FKDQJHG HYHU \\ VHFRQG
FORFN ˚F \\ FOH ? 7KH GDWD IRU WKH 1 ? 1 ? ?? 1 ? ? HWF ? VDPSOHV DUH
YDOLG ?
57
DQG 9
5%
KDYH WR KDYH VHWWOHG WR ZLWKLQ
VKRZV
WKH
DQ
HTXLYDOHQW
LQSXW
FLUFXLW ?
EH
,Q
PDQ \\
DV
DSSOLFDWLRQV ?
LQSXW
LPSHGDQFH
外债配额
WUHDWHG
$3
? ?? QV
DIWHU WKH VHFRQG ULVLQJ HGJH ? 6HH
) LJXUH ?
IRU
FDSDFLWLYH ? ) RU IDVW VLJQDOV DQG ð KLJK GULYLQJ LPSHGDQFH ? ð
ZLGH EDQGZLGWK RS DPS LV UHFRPPHQGHG ?
,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW RS DPSV KDYH LQGXFWLYH ┮䘖
LPSHGDQFHV DW KLJK IUHTXHQFLHV ZKLFK LV ð FRQVHTXHQFH RI
WKH HPLWWHU LPSHGDQFH RI WKH W¯¯ \\ SLFDO SXVK ? SXOO ┮䘖VWDJH ?
7KH
UHVXOWLQJ
WUDQVLHQW
ULQJLQJ
VKRXOG
EH
GDPSHG
E\
&安培; / 。
1
1
1
LQVHUWLQJ ð UHVLVWRU LQ VHULHV ZLWK WKH $' & LQSXW I W \\ SLFDOO \\
DERXW ?
:
6HH
?? QV ? W¯¯
$3
5()(5(1&(
'
287
1
) LJXUH ?
7KH H [ DFW YDOXH PD \\ EH REWDLQHG
IURP WKH RS DPS PDQXIDFWXUHU ·V GDWD VKHHW ?
6LJQDOV VKRXOG QRW H [ FHHG 9
?? QV
1
1
9
RU JR EHORZ * 1 “
ï ? 9 ? $ OO SLQV KDYH LQWHUQDO SURWHFWLRQ GLRGHV WKDW ZLOO SURWHFW
WKHP IURP VKRUW WUDQVLHQWV ?
6HH 1RWH ? $ EVROXWH 0D [ LPXP
5DWLQJV
RXWVLGH WKH VXSSO \\ UDQJH ?
) LJXUH ? '\\ QDPLF崬&RQWURO
5HY ? ????